Peugeot breaks tradition with Tavares

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Philippe Varin swept into PSA in 2009 to prepare to prepare the French OEM for the current European economic malaise, and now his tenure is up.  In a move that is surely printing as much ink in the gossip pages in Paris as the economic journals, PSA has signed former Renault COO Carlos Tavares to take over.  This is just not done in Paris where niceties may be superficial, but are strong.  Well it’s been done now.  It may not be GM or Ford as Tavares had suggested in an August Automotive News interview, but leading a revival of near dead PSA presents a tantalizing and potentially highly rewarding challenge to the international auto veteran.

While Tavares may lack some of the product flair of his Nissan predecessor Patrickimages (2) Pelata, he corralled a Nissan organization that was lacking any top-level direction below CEO Carlos Ghosn.  At Nissan, he cemented the importance of U.S, product and sales discipline, and balanced Ghosn’s quest for market share Continue reading

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Breaking News: Japanese car brands are alive and well in the U.S.

Newly assembled 2013 Ford Escapes sit on plant lots ready to be shipped out to dealers at the newly transformed Louisville Assembly Plant in LouisvilleSo Japanese brands are back in the U.S. auto market. I wasn’t aware they ever left.

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Japanese brands gained during crisis, but overall have been stable.

Sure, the past two years have given us production upsets from a tsunami, the Tsunami and a hyper strengthening of the yen all while the US auto market has bounced back from historic lows during the financial crisis. Japanese brand market share peaked in 2 Continue reading

China August Auto Sales view; relax

The “China Slowdown” is running right behind the Europe morass and the U.S. fiscal cliff have been the big news for the US market. Now, August sees the China auto market rate of growth slow again, growing concern for automakers.  Here are a couple of thoughts on the impact on global Auto OEMs:

The biggest concern I’ve heard is over Toyota’s two months of decline in the market; -15% for August after a -5% in July.  Toyota says this is more a technical issue resulting form unseasonably big increased in July and August 2011 as it ramped local sales back up after the Japan crises. Both Toyota and local dealers dismissed suggestions that local pushback on Japan-China politics was not  Continue reading

China first half auto sales: still on two tracks

China auto sales are in for the first half and they are slightly ahead of the consensus of 5% growth for the year.  Overall PV sales are up 7.1% over last year, and again we see a two-tiered level of performance.

First-half growth was driven largely by a rebound on the Japanese brands after their hit from last year’s earthquake impact, and a push from luxury brands 2012 actions to move overbuilt inventory.  Overall GM + the Japanese brands lead the increase while locals were relatively flat.  June sales were extremely strong +16%, I see this as mainly driven against the constricted J3 sales post earthquake in 2011.

The Japanese brands drove market growth with newly stocked inventory.  June sales were extremely strong for Honda in particular, up 84%.  Nissan and Toyota had more regular supply last year leading to results more in line with YTD numbers.

However, all international brands are not the same Continue reading

UAW wants Nissan in Mississippi. Civil Rights: What?

You gotta be kidding me, the UAW says unionization is akin to civil rights. I might make a reverse argument, but that’s not for this forum. As Bob King targets Nissan’s Mississippi plant as the “do or die” target a lot of data is being thrown around, and I agree with one thing King has said: “Fear and intimidation should not be part of the equation,” and that counts for both sides. The UAW aggressively make its case, the company can as well and let these adults make a fair and private decision in a fair and private process. Let’s take a look at some of the variables that have been posed:

Continue reading

May US SAAR continues subdued growth

US Sales were up 16% for May 2012. SAAR comes  out at around 13.8 million for the month, which  threw some cool water on analysts expecting the 14+ million pace to continue. What is worrisome is that too many analysts took their numbers up on a strong April that clearly showed some flattening signs as did May. Whenever I see mid-month weakness in the numbers followed by an ultra-strong close, I see slowing demand. Jan – Apr tracked at a 14.5 million pace, and May has pulled that down to 14.3 million. While bulls had rushed to push some numbers up around 15 million, more experienced market watchers have held closer to 14 million forecasts. Why does it matter? Continue reading

J3 Automaker profits on track for FY 2013: probably so!

I’ve written in the past about the biggest impact on J3 earnings, not natural disasters or imagined acceleration…the yen.  With the yen trending stronger against the dollar over the past week, I took a look at estimates for FY2013 to double.  With Toyota and Honda using 80 yen/dollar and Nissan 82 yen/dollar, I’ve talked with some folks who are concerned that we may see some disappointment in the coming quarters if the yen hangs around these 78 levels.  I’m not so worried.  Let’s look at three points. Continue reading