November US Auto Sales: the real data to watch at year-end

November U.S. auto sales are out tomorrow morning.  Get ready for hype of how many red 2-door V-6’s this automaker or that moved on Black Friday.  It’s not relevant.  I really don’t care whether the month tracked at 15.5 or 16.1 million SAAR.  We are closing on on the shift from a rapidly expanding market to a market where costs will automakers will have to control costs and command price.  

Here are three things to look at as the year ends.  More important than overall volume.

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  1. Inventories have crept up.  If December is a blow-out, +16 million, then this may adjust.  If it paces in mid 15’s.  Say 15.5-15.7, then I expect continued inventory build to be a worry.Capture
  2. Sub-prime lending is getting to aggressive.  If macro indicators are improving, Continue reading
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